2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 03, 2012


New York at Washington

Monday 12/03 08:30 PM Eastern

3 units on New York (moneyline) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

It's Giants time. This team seems to go through a dead spot each November. But, as soon as things seem lost, they answer the bell. The past few seasons, this team has looked terrible at times, but they have then come on late to make a statement and enter the playoffs on fire. Last week, after having dropped back-to-back games, they surely took care of business vs. Green Bay in a game that was uncontested from the first quarter to the final gun. When the Giants get motivated, they are the best team in football. If history is our guide, expect the G-Men to respond once again tonight. With RGIII at quarterback, things have gotten exciting in Washington and there is a feeling that the Redskins are a much improved team. The problem is last season they were 4-7 and this season they are 5-6 so it has meant the difference of all of one win. If we look through the hype generated by their shiny new quarterback, the reality is that Washington is still a mediocre team that is getting out-gained on the year. The problem is the defense and last time I looked, Griffin didn't play on that side of the ball. This defense has allowed every team on their schedule except for one team (that is on an eight-game losing streak) to score 21 or more points. New York averages 27.7 points per game (over 30 per game vs. losing teams). Why are these numbers important? Teams that score 21 or more points win the game straight up 75% of the time in the NFL. That figure jumps to 85% if they are favored in the game. So if you believe the Giants will score 21+ here (hard to see how they don't), then you have to believe Washington somehow finds some way within the historic 15% chance to win this game. It could happen, but I don't think it will. If Washington derails the Giants, it will be due to RGIII. He is completing 67% of his passes with a 16-4 TD to INT ratio, after all. The problem with that, however, is that New York steps up against great quarterbacks. Since last season, the Giants are 10-4 straight-up vs. QBs that complete 64%+ of their passes and 11-4 vs. teams that average 7+ pass yards per attempt. Just ask Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers how this defense treats elite signal-callers. Over that same span, the G-Men are 8-1 vs. teams that allow 375+ yards per game. In the Coughlin era, New York is 13-2 straight-up vs. such teams. And, New York is the best road team in the NFL right now (10-5 on the road since last season). Meanwhile, the Redskins are just 3-12 under Mike Shanahan following a win and 2-10 straight-up when coming off an upset win. RGIII will have his day. I just don't think it will be tonight. Take New York to win this game.


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