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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 20, 2008

20

New York at Green Bay

Sunday 01/20 06:30 PM Eastern

2 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -105 (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: loss

5 units on Green Bay -300 (moneyline) (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: loss

5 units on Green Bay -7.5 (-110) (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: loss

The Giants have caught fire and surprisingly find themselves one win away from the Superbowl. They have now won and covered six of their last seven games and have a chance to be the first team in NFL history to win 10 road games in a season. Yes, the Giants are on a roll, but think about this. So are the Packers! Favre and company are now 18-3 SU and 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games! The Giants have played well, and we won't take that away from them. There is a "but" in all of this however. They lost to New England, but gave them a true run for their money. New England has not been the electric team blowing out everyone in their path for the entire second half of the season. The first half they went 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS but since then, they are 9-0 SU, but 2-7 ATS. You have to agree, the Giants caught New England at a time when they were not performing as optimally as they were earlier on. Then they faced a Tampa Bay team that dropped four of their last five and were certainly not performing at their peak either. Last week the G-Men went to Dallas and beat a Cowboy team that lost three of four, and scored just 49 points in the four games. Prior to the offensive meltdown at the end, the Cowboys hadn't scored less than 49 in any two games the entire season! We give the Giants credit for winning last week but much of that had to do with Dallas playing well below their normal level and losing the game. The Giants had fewer first downs (4 to 9) and fewer yards (57 to 115) in the second half and still managed to win. So, the Giants caught three teams at their lowest points. What on the surface looks like a spectacular three week run for them, is in fact not quite so grand. This will be the first time the Giants face a team that is also clicking, and clicking in a big way. Would you think we are crazy to say that the Packers at their peak are just as good as the Patriots at their peak this season? Well, check this out. New England was destroying all opponents in their first eight wins by an average of 23 ppg. The Packers have quietly done the same thing as in their last eight wins they have won by an average of 20 ppg! The Pack remain a bit under the radar. Green Bay was good early in the season, but it changed when Ryan Grant became the featured back. The Packers' biggest weakness all of a sudden became their biggest strength. Grant finsihed the second half as the #2 running back in the NFL, behind Tomlinson. The Giants have another concern. Eli Manning was recently quoted as saying how he hates playing in cold weather. He has not started in a game with a temperatue below freezing since 2005 and he has only done this twice in his career. His numbers in those two game are 31-68 45.6%, 313 yards, 0 TDs, and 3 INTs. Uh oh! Brett Favre has played in three games this season at Lambeau with a temperature below freezing and has gone 42-67 62.7% for 538 yards, 7 TDs, and one INT. The Packers have the best offensive line in football and Favre has only been dropped 19 times all season. The Cowboys offensive line opened huge holes for Barber against the Giant defensive line, racking up over 100 yards in the first half. They wilted midway through the 3rd quarter, as did Barber go got 27 carries (only carried 20+ once all season). That won't happen in Green Bay. Many feel the cold will help the Giants, as they have a league leading 4.6 ypc average. But since the emergence of Grant, the Packers have been getting 5.1 ypc, so they have been even better! Once you give the running edge to Green Bay, what edge is left for New York? Not a thing! Green Bay has every single advantage, on both sides of the ball. The Packers have allowed just 11.4 ppg at Lambeau since Grant started carrying the ball at mid-season. The Giants are playing well, but for the first time in their run, they will be facing a team that is also on a roll and playing at even a higher level. They will be facing a clearly superior football team in very rough conditions. In the second half of the season, when the games get meaningful and the weather turns cold, the Pack are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. winning teams. Let's make it 23-7.

The conditions in Green Bay call for an initial game time temperature of 2 degrees, falling below zero quickly, with windchills well below 0. We have researched the coldest games in NFL history, and here is what we found:

The Ice Bowl in GB on 12-31-67 Temp: -13 Wind chill: -48. Total points scored: 38
1-12-82 @ CINN Temp: -9 Wind chill: -59. Total points scored: 34
1-7-96 @ KC Temp -6 (five of six FGs missed). Total points: 17
1-4-81 @ CLEVE Temp: -5. Total points: 26
12-3-72 @ MINN Temp: -2. wind chill: -26  Total points: 33
12-10-72 @ MINN Temp: 0. Wind chill: -18 Total points: 30
12-26-93 @ GB Temp: 0. Total points: 28
1-20-08 @ GB Temp: below zero for most of game with wind chill: from -5 to -17

The seven coldest games in NFL history have never exceeded 38 points. The average points scored in these games was just 29.4. The total is still at 39.5, and we suggest you play the UNDER here, as not one of these games has ever gone over 38 points scored.


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