2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 06, 2007
New Orleans at Indianapolis
Thursday 09/06 08:30 PM Eastern
3 units on Game Total UNDER 54 -115 (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
The NFL regular season kicks-off tonight in a battle between two big-time heavyweights. The Superbowl Champion Colts host the upstart Saints. This match-up features two of the most potent offenses in the NFL and most folks are expecting a shootout. But we beg to differ. Week one of the NFL season is not the week you typically see everything flowing offensively. This total is based on how these teams performed "as a whole" last year. It is probably the right total - if these teams were already in mid-season form. The Colts have had a high powered offense now for several years, but does that equate to a high octane performance in week one? You guessed it - no! The last four seasons the Colts have averaged 21 points scored in week one. They have allowed an average of just 13. They have not topped 26 points offensively and their week-one scoring is consistently much lower than their season average. The Colts scored 26 last year in game one, which ranked as their 9th highest output for the season. The 2005 opener saw them score 24 which was their 11th ranked output for the season. The '04 Colts scored 24 in week one, good for their 12th best. Finally, the '03 Colts put up 9 (their 16th ranked output for the year). So, yes - the Colts score, but not nearly as much in their opener. Week one is rarely, if ever, one of their higher scoring games. It has in fact averaged a rank of 12 out of 16 over four years. Also, the UNDER has hit in 10 of Indy's last 15 home games. The Saints last year became an offensive juggernaut for the first time in many years. But even last year they weren't clicking in week one. They scored 19 points which ranked 13th best out of the 16 games they played. The more you look at this total, the more out of whack it looks. No NFL first week total as far back as 1995, has ever been posted this high! There have been 24 games over the past six seasons with opening game totals of 45+ and the UNDER has come through in 20 of the 24 (83.3%)! The oddsmakers and public are enamored with, and focused on, the high profile offensive stars in this game (Manning, Harrison, Bush, Brees). That has resulted in a line that is way off and we'll jump on the value on the other side. This is just too high for a game one, and we will play UNDER.