2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 16, 2012

16

New Orleans at Carolina

Sunday 09/16 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on New Orleans PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

We faded New Orleans successfully last week. I wrote in the preseason about how I thought the Saints were in for a much tougher season this year as compared to 2011. Lo and behold, they were victimized by RG3 in week one. They certainly were not prepared for the kind of game he delivered for the Redskins, which was the best of any QB in week one. While some of that falls into the lap of the Saints themselves, a lot of credit has to be given to Mike Shannahan who is lethal with that much time to prepare. Also recognize that the Saints had a -3 turnover ratio in that game which is not going to repeat itself often. New Orleans will be ready this week. Last week was definitely a wake up call and the Saints simply cannot afford to start 0-2 so look for a much better effort this week. The Saints will be seeing Cam Newton now for the third time. Newton lost both games vs. the Saints last season. In those games he had pedestrian numbers going 31-56 for 377 yards in the two games, getting sacked four times. He did not beat them with his legs either, rushing for only 59 yards on 13 carries. Newton will struggle a bit more all season, given that there is now a lot of film and a whole season to prepare for his unique style of play. Drew Brees was another story in the two games vs. the suspect Carolina defense. Brees went 64-80 completing 80% of his passes, good for 748 yards and 6 TDs. The Saints are 7-0 ATS the past three seasons after allowing 30+ points and they are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games following a game in which they had a turnover margin of -3 or worse. We are getting value on New Orleans this week thanks to last week's game. There is certainly a lot of difference between these teams than a near pick-‘em line. Play on New Orleans.

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