2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 29, 2015

29

New England at Denver

Sunday 11/29 08:30 PM Eastern

2 units on Game Total OVER 43 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: WIN

It will be cold in Denver Sunday night but no wind, and that's the key for the offenses. QB Tom Brady and the Patriots are used to playing in cold conditions this time of the year. The Patriots don't have a conservative offensive style, even with several key injuries, going on the attack to get an early lead. New England is 4-1 OVER the total on the road and 7-1 OVER against a team with a winning record. New England remained unbeaten despite being held to a season-low point total in Monday night's 20-13 win over Buffalo. But that was against Rex Ryan's mix and match scheme's, which often gives Brady trouble. The offensive line is short on bodies but they aren't as bad as they looked Monday; they will bounce back strong, just as they did after a terrible showing on Monday Night Football a year ago against the Chiefs with the same personnel they have now. The OVER is 16-7 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Denver finally sat Peyton Manning and it was the right move to go with Brock Osweiler last week. Osweiler was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after completing 20 of 27 passes for 250 yards, two touchdowns and zero turnovers. Osweiler made good use of his tight end tandem of Vernon Davis and Owen Daniels, who combined for 10 receptions and 137 yards. He also has stellar wideouts with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.  Sanders (46 catches and four touchdowns) will to return to the starting lineup Sunday after sitting out last week. Wade Phillips runs the Denver defense and while Brady has struggled against Rex Ryan he has never had trouble against Philips' defenses. The OVER is 5-1 when they meet, including 7-3 OVER at Denver, and this total is too low. Play this one OVER the total. 



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