2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 30, 2012

30

New England at Buffalo

Sunday 09/30 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on New England PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

For the second week in a row we get tremendous value backing a great team. We took New England last week and cashed. We'll do it again this week. The New England Patriots are off to a 1-2 start, but it is not like they have played poorly. The teams they lost to, Baltimore and Arizona, are off to a combined 6-1 start. Last week they had the game in hand on the road against a great team until a controversial last minute field goal by the Ravens. It has been nearly a decade since the Pats lost three in a row, so I expect them to come out breathing fire in this one. The last five times this team lost two in a row, they have come back to win all five by a combined score of 157-57. Arizona's 3-0 start has been impressive but did you know that the Patriots out-gained them 387-245? New England also moved the chains well in that game, getting 25 first downs compared to just 16 for the Cardinals. New England also had 33 first downs at Baltimore in the 1-point loss. In the game vs. Arizona the Pats missed a game winning FG as well. The Bills need all the weapons they can muster vs. New England, so the loss of C.J. Spiller is a big one. Spiller had gained 308 yards on 33 carries before injuring his shoulder. They also have lost David Nelson who caught 61 balls a year ago to a torn ACL. The Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 after a loss and 51-24-3 ATS on the road in their last 78. They are also 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games after allowing 30+ points. Finally, the Pats have covered seven of the last eight here in this building. Under Belichick, New England is 34-20 ATS as a road favorite. My computer matchup for this game has New England winning by a touchdown. I agree: Lay the points and look for a big New England win.

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