2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 23, 2012
New England at Baltimore
Sunday 09/23 08:25 PM Eastern
2 units on New England PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
A pair of teams that are expected to be standing deep into the postseason come into this one off tough losses. New England lost by 2 points as a prohibitive favorite thanks to a missed chip-shot field goal at the end of the game. The Ravens lost by a single point. The loser here will be a surprising 1-2 to open the season. The Ravens’ potent defense looked old against Philadelphia as the Eagles torched them for 357 yards. When they needed one more -stop, they surrendered a TD on Philadelphia's go-ahead score late in the game. And, the Ravens lost last week despite getting four turnovers from the Eagles. That doesn't bode well here as they face a potent New England passing game. The Patriots surrendered a lot of yards a year ago - second worst in the league, but allowed just 21 points per game, which ranked in the upper half of the league in fewest points allowed. They made some changes in the off-season, and are currently No. 2 on defense. So at least at this point of the season the Patriots appear to be on equal or perhaps better ground than the Ravens on defense. The Pats are 22-8 ATS after a loss since 2003, including 5-0 ATS if they are posted as a dog. They’re also 13-2 ATS overall if playing on the road. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are going to come out with some fire this game after last week's loss. In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots are 22-6 ATS after passing for less than 150 yards. You don't shut down Brady often. When you do, he usually comes back strong. It’s tough to buck the Pats in the Brady and Belichick era in this spot. Belichick is 38-19 ATS with the pats as an undedog. He's also 14-5 ATS off a home loss and 13-4 ATS on the road off an upset loss. Take the Patriots here (buy a half point to +3).