2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 09, 2007
Minnesota at San Francisco
Sunday 12/09 04:05 PM Eastern
5 units on San Francisco +9 (-110) (risk 5 to return 5) RESULT: LOSS
The Vikings have played themselves back into playoff contention at 6-6 and are coming off a complete pasting of the Lions. They completely dismantled Detroit in a game that most thought would be close, providing the biggest surprise of last week. They have won four of their last five and for the second consecutive week topped the 40 point mark. With Peterson back toting the ball, this team is great, right? They are at their peak and have officially become a public team. Is this suddenly an unstoppable offense though? Not exactly. They scored 41 vs the Giants on just 251 yards, as the New York offense self-destructed with three pick-sixes. They were shutout vs the Packers, and had to fight at home vs the Raiders to get a win. This is a serious overlay, yet the public has bitten this one hard, backing the Vikings at over 75%. The Vikes are led by a QB with a 69.6 rating. Jackson has shown the propensity to complete more to the wrong uniform than his own in the endzone. It's been a long time since we have seen a team with a pass defense rated dead last in the league as a road favorite of this magnitude. The Vikes are a one-dimensional team on offense and defense. They stop the run, and they are good at running the ball. They can't pass or stop the pass however. They are a flawed team especially playing on the road where they have been out-scored 23.2-19.3 and own just two wins versus four losses. This is a team that has gone 9-30 SU outdoors since 2001, they were under .500 before last week and yet they are favored by almost double-digits? San Francisco went seven weeks scoring only 60 points, but they have scored 51 in the last two. Last week they made six turnovers, but it was still a 3-point game late in the 3rd quarter. Remember, the Niners were +10 at Pittsburgh, but now they are in that same price range vs Minnesota at home? A lot of that is based on the hype around Peterson. Don't get us wrong, he is the best in the league right now, but still hobbled a bit. And, if teams learn to stack the box against him, Minnesota's passing game can't come to the rescue. The odds-makers have no choice setting this line after watching Minnesota putting up 40+ two weeks in a row, and San Francisco struggling for the most part with offense. But recently, the Niners have found some offense and they get a shot at the worst pass defense in the league. The last time Minnesota gave 7+ points on the road was in 2006 vs this same Niners team. The Vikings lost the game outright. It's hard to deny the value in this one, and we will ride the Niners to stay within the number here.