2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 21, 2007
Minnesota at Dallas
Sunday 10/21 04:15 PM Eastern
3 units on Dallas -9.5 (+103) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
We're don't often lay big chalk like this but we love this situation. The Dallas Cowboys were brought back down to earth last week vs. the New England Patriots, as the Pats continued their destruction of anything in their path. Wow is all we can say. Dallas reacted well to the loss. They had their shot against New England as they took the Pat's best punches for a while and even had a 4-point lead. But in the end, Brady was just too perfect. We were on Minnesota last week and they performed as we expected, riding a big game turned in by Adian Peterson to get past the Bears. We liked the Vikes because of Peterson last week but this week he'll be on of the reasons we fade them. The Vikings are completely reliant on Peterson, and against some of the weaker defenses, he has produced big plays. Minnesota has faced Atlanta's #24 ranked defense,Detroit's #29, and the Bears #27. They were able to find the endzone in those games. But, when they faced a Green Bay defense ranked #13, they didn't find the endzone until they were down 23-9 with 1:55 left. Against the Chiefs #10 ranked defense they managed to find it on their first drive, but were shutout the rest of the game. The fact is, Minnesota has topped 20 points on the road in just 3 of their last 11 games. Tavaris Jackson is completing just 49% of his passes, with two TDs compared to five INTs. Dallas is going to key on Peterson with their #6 ranked rushing defense, and force Jackson into the air. The Cowboy secondary has already picked off 10 passes (most in the league). Minnesota is the worst team in the league at stopping the pass, and Romo is going to pick that defense apart. Dallas has a bad taste in its mouth after last week. They lost no confidence and will be out to prove that they are still a great team. With a bye upcoming next week, they will leave it all on the field in this one. We have a system involving upcoming byes that is live for this game that is 25-3 ATS. Dallas was also 6-1 ATS after a loss last season. We must also point out that the Viking secondary made Greise look like a Pro Bowl QB last week, and with an offensive line that has allowed just over one sack per game, there won't be enough pressure to stop Romo. Cowboys roll at home.