Milwaukee at St. Louis

Adam Wainwright won 20 games a year ago and 19 in 2013, and has started the season at 1-0 with an impressive debut allowing no runs over six innings of work. Wainwright, however, has been somewhat puzzling as a home favorite over his career as he actually has a better record against winning teams than he does vs. losing teams. He is just 2-2 as a home favorite against Milwaukee in his career to a line of greater than -165, so what may appear as a slam dunk is far from it. Matt Garza has plus stuff and will likely be zoned in here vs. Wainwright as he knows there is not any margin for error. Looks ugly, but the value is on the dog in this one. Make the play on Milwaukee.