Miami at Oklahoma City

The Heat have gone OVER in three straight games with 215 points per game scored on average. So this game has to go OVER, right? Wrong. Those three games came against teams that all average triple digits per game, one against the Golden State Warriors whose games average 219 points per game. They now have to travel to Oklahoma City to face a team that has allowed just 96 points per game. The past two seasons, the Thunder are 23-10 UNDER at home vs. teams that make 76%+ of their free throws and 37-24 UNDER overall at home. The Heat are 55-35 UNDER the past three seasons to a total set in the 190s. Over that span they are also 24-11 UNDER when coming off an upset win as they are here. I like this game to go UNDER the total.