Miami at Detroit

Detroit can play defense we know. Last game they couldn't get any offense and as a result, lost and missed the cover. They shot 38.3% from the field as Miami stepped things up in a near must-win for them. The Pistons haven't shot that bad in the playoffs but once. On May 13th they shot 36.9% against Indiana. In the following game, they roared back to a 10-point victory as a 5 point favorite in the following game. I expect something similar here. They will find a way to slow Wade in this one, you can be sure. And Shaq is clearly hurting enough that he can't shoulder the load by himself. Let's not forget how Miami has played away from homem this year vs. defenses like this. Miami is 1-5 ATS on the road versus good defensive teams that hold opponents under 43% FG this season. Detroit has held opponents to 42.9% this season but they step it up even more during the playoffs (42.2%) and at home (41.3%). We'll back the Pistons and their defense here for two stars.