2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 14, 2007
Miami at Cleveland
Sunday 10/14 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Miami +4.5 (-115) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: LOSS
A lot of people are wondering if the Dolphins will ever win a game this year. The only team in the history of the NFL with a perfect season has a chance to notch an inverse perfect one at 0-16. Cleveland has gotten off to a surprising start at 2-3, and could be 3-2 if not for a missed field goal in Oakland. The Browns have moved the ball well, but one fact remains: they can't stop anyone. They are dead last in the league in total yards allowed (424.4 per game) and ranked 30th in points given up (30.4 per game). Sooner or later, their offense breaks down, and a game that was supposed to be competitive turns into a blowout. The Dolphins certainly have not fared well on the road, as they are winless this year and just 2-9 in their last 11. But there is a silver lining for Miami and it comes at the end of the 4th quarter. Miami may not be winning these games on the road, but they have been more than competitive. They would have covered 7 of their last 10 to a line this high. And of the three they would not have covered were against a different caliber of opponent including New England and Indianapolis. Last time we checked, Cleveland is not anywhere near the level of those teams. The Dolphins are going to win some games this season, and this is a spot in which we expect them to be highly competitive. The change at QB for Miami can't make things worse. We expect it to give the team a jolt of needed energy. With a full week to prepare with the first team, against this defense, Cleo Lemon should do just fine. We would not be surprised if they leave Cleveland with their first win.