2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 15, 2012
Miami at Buffalo
Thursday 11/15 08:25 PM Eastern
2 units on Miami PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: LOSS
After starting the year 4-3 with hopes rising, the Dolphins have dropped back-to-back games. The 3-point loss at Indianapolis doesn't look so bad at this point. But, last week's 37-3 drubbing at the hands of the Titans looks really bad. As a result, we get some extra line value here tonight. We are getting points with the superior team. Buffalo has lost three in a row and five of their last six games. The Bills have allowed 35+ points in more than half of their games this season. To make matters worse, they are without Fred Jackson. While C.J. Spiller is very good, the Bills lose a lot without Jackson to shoulder part of the load. The Dolphins also have Buffalo's number. In two meetings last season, Miami outscored Buffalo 65-31 in two wins, and the Fins have won six of the last eight meetings. While Buffalo has a slight edge on offense, even without Jackson, the defensive side of the ball is another story. These two teams are night and day on defense. Buffalo allows 410 yards and 31.7 points per game. Miami gives up just 20.7 points per game. Dating back to the 2010 season, Miami is now 15-6 ATS on the road. And, if they are taking to the road off a home loss, they are 8-1 ATS. Miami is the better team here so take them. Some sportsbooks have them at +3 with extra juice. Others have them at +2.5 and I recommend buying the half point. If you want to take them straight-up on the moneyline, that's not a bad choice either.