Los Angeles at Milwaukee

Sure, Yovani Gallardo has been very good most of the season, posting an 11-5 mark. But there are chinks in that armor. Four of his five losses have come at home and the Brewers are just 13-11 in his starts thanks to a weak bullpen. And, over his last three starts, Gallardo has been rocked to the tune of a 7.72 ERA. Over his last three starts, Carlos Monasterios has posted a 3.14 ERA. The Dodgers have struggled on the road, but they actually average more runs per game away from home than do the Brewers at home! The Brew Crew has faltered big-time as a favorite. Over the past three seasons, they barely own a .500 record in games in which they were favored between -125 and -175. And, they are under .500 at home this season and just 17-29 in day games this season. I like the Dodgers chances here, especially at these odds.