2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 16, 2007
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Sunday 12/16 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Jacksonville +3.5 (-125) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
4 units on Game Total UNDER 35 -110 (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: loss
Jacksonville has it going on both sides of the ball now. The offense is clicking, and has not produced less than 24 points in any of the last seven games, and they have now covered five straight. You don't have to look much further than David Garrard, the most underrated QB in the NFL. All he has done is pass to a 103.3 QB rating, thrown just one INT all season. He has emerged as one of the leagues best, while staying relatively under the radar. His play has opened up running lanes for Taylor and Jones-Drew to the tune of 1,600 yards rushing, and a combined 4.7 ypc. Ben Roethlisberger is a game-time decision with a sore shoulder, and the weather is likely to be a factor as well. The Steelers offense which was playing good early but has hit the wall as they have produced just 56 points the last four weeks, or only 14ppg. The history resides on the side of Jacksonville as well, as when two teams that have a 67% winning percentage or higher square off after week 13, the underdog has emerged with the cover 62% of the time. Teams that are a favorite after playing New England are just 6-13 ATS over the last 19 games, with nine straight-up losses. We will ride the hot Jags here. The total is a late add weather play on the UNDER that fits our 70% system.