2018 Season College Football Past Picks
January 01, 2019
Iowa vs. Mississippi State
Tuesday 01/01 12:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Iowa +7 (-105) (risk 2 to return 3.9) RESULT: WIN
OUTBACK BOWL - The Big 10 isn't getting much respect with this betting number. Iowa matches up well, with a rock-solid defense and a balanced offense. QB Nate Stanley (23 TDs, 9 INTs) has a dynamic target in Mackey Award-winning tight end T.J. Hockenson (717 yards, 15.6 yards per carry) and a power running game behind Mekhi Sargent (748 yards) and Toren Young (630 yards). Iowa's defense is strong up front, as usual, at seventh in the country in total yards allowed, sixth at stuffing the run, and #11 in points surrendered (17.4 pg). Iowa is 44-24 ATS against teams averaging 5.9 yards per play, plus 46-24 ATS versus opponents who average over 200 yards rushing yards per contest. They face a Mississippi State squad that is all about running the football, ranked #111 in passing, but Iowa is outstanding at containing the run. Mississippi State is 6-19 ATS away from home after gaining 125 or fewer passing yards in their last game and Iowa is 48-24 ATS against teams averaging 4.75 yards per rush. Play Iowa.