Idaho at New Mexico State

Idaho has lost fifteen of sixteen games but they've been much kinder to bettors having won three straight and five of seven against the spread. They are just 8-13 on the year against the number but many of those losses came as a favorite or small dog. As a dog of 8 or more points, they are 8-7 and 5-2 as a dog of 12 or more. These two teams met on January 5th with New Mexico State winning 62-52 on the road. Road underdogs revenging a loss in which they scored less than 60 points, now coming off two ATS wins/SU losses are 27-8 (77%) ATS since 1997. Also, road dogs of 10 to 19.5 points that allow opponents to shoot 45%+ coming off 4 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 23-5 (82%) ATS since 1997. This is another inflated spread due to Idaho's 4-21 record (0-11 on the road) and poor defense. But, they've found a way to play above themselves of late and we get a lot of value on the inflated spread. Yet another game in which I expect the heavy home favorite to sleep walk a bit and allow the big underdog to pull out the ATS win. Four stars on the Vandals.