2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 30, 2012
Houston at Indianapolis
Sunday 12/30 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Indianapolis PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: win
2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: loss
The Houston Texans need the win here. A win clinches home-field advantage for as long as they manage to stay in the playoffs. However, the Colts certainly aren't going to wave the white flag. The Colts will get a huge emotional lift out of the return to the sidelines of their head coach Chuck Pagano. We have seen these emotionally charged teams before, and more often than not they play at their ultimate "A" level. So while it seems the Colts don't have anything to play for here, they really do. This game is for their coach. They also have another motivating factor, as they were dismantled by the Texans 29-14. There is one more mitigating factor the Texans are facing here, they have never won here and are 0-10 straight-up. The Texans were chomping up opponents, but needed a miracle win in Detroit, were beaten badly at New England 42-14, and lost at home 23-6 last week to Minnesota. They will have to overcome their own poor play down the stretch, an emotionally charged and amped up Colts team, and the fact that they have never won here. Those are a lot of obstacles, and winning will be tough enough, but winning by more than a TD, is not in the cards. Pagano isn't resting starters here. This week he said, “We owe it to ourselves, this community, our fans and our city. It’s just not in our DNA and these kids’ DNA to go out and say, ‘Hey, we’re going to rest this guy or that guy.’ I know where we’re seeded and all that stuff, but we want to go in with some momentum. Like every game, it doesn't matter who it is; we’re going to try to win.” Play on Indianapolis. Also take the OVER in this game. The Texans average 27 points per game and of late, their defense has been allowing an equal amount as offenses seem to have found ways to exploit the secondary. In their last six games, the Texans have allowed 31+ three times and the average points allowed has been 26.7. The only team they kept under 23 points was the lowly Titans. In the Gary Kubiak era, the Texans are 31-19 OVER after a loss including 18-6 OVER after a double-digit loss. The Colts average 24 points per game in dome games and they should score enough here to get this game OVER the total.