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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 30, 2007

30

Green Bay at Minnesota

Sunday 09/30 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Minnesota +3 (-125) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

The Packers are off to a 3-0 start and Brett Favre has been outstanding so far. He's looked like the Favre of old and last week tied Dan Marino last week for the most career TD passes at 420. He's the talk of the town (and ESPN, CBS, ABC and NBC). It's a great storyline for the talking suits, but we aren't buying it wholesale just yet. The Eagles gift wrapped game one at Lambeau and the Packers barely could muster enough to win by 3. In week two, the Giants were completely banged-up, lost on defense, and the Pack won a game they should of won against a bad team. They then go on to beat San Diego at home , and now they have everyone's attention. The problem is, under Norv Turner, this San Diego team is frankly not very good yet. LT is running like an old man so far and until they make some wholesale changes, the Chargers could keep losing. There is one wart on this Packers team that most seem to be glossing over, and it doesn't bode well long-term for the Pack. They have no ground attack at all! They have managed just 171 yards in three games and sooner or later, if you can't run in this league, you stop winning. The fact is all the teams the Packers have beaten have a losing record, and two of those were home games. The Packers under Favre have always been a nightmare playing in domes. Favre on his career is 14-30 ATS inside. They rank just 18th on offense and 15th on defense, so their 3-0 record and the numbers don't match! In the NFL, defenses adjust. Sometimes it takes a bit of time, but they catch on. The forumla for beating Green Bay has become glaringly clear - stop the pass. We believe Minnesota will bring it again Favre and force him into tough situations. If Green Bay can't run, and Minnesota takes away the pass, the Pack is in trouble. The Vikings have recorded 11 sacks and with no running game, they are going to put a lot of pressure on Favre, who often makes big mistakes under pressure and on the road. Kelly Holcomb stabilizes the QB position for Minnesota and Adrien Peterson has been a great #1 draft pick. Peterson has single-handedly put up almost double the Packers entire rushing output. And, he is picking up 20 yards per reception out of the backfield. The dog is 14-2 in the last 16 in this series and Minnesota at home as a dog is 20-8 in their last 28. We will ride the Vikings here.


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