2017 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 08, 2017
Green Bay at Dallas
Sunday 10/08 04:25 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Green Bay +115 (moneyline) (risk 1.5 to return 3.23) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 52.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: loss
Green Bay is a underdog, but an elite team with the best quarterback in the game that's off to a strong start. QB Aaron Rodgers has 10 TDs, three picks and the defense has been much improved at sixth in the NFL in yards allowed, and fifth in pass defense. Green Bay is on a 11-2 straight-up run, winning three of their last four times as a dog, as well as 34-16-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game. They face a Dallas squad that lost key contributors from last year, ranked #20 at defending the pass, and #26 in points allowed (24.3 points per game). They've been outscored on the season and are dealing with injuries: Charles Tapper will miss 10-to-12 weeks, while LB Sean Lee (hamstring) and Stephen Paea (knee) have been limited in practice this week. RB Ezekiel Elliott, the focal point of the offense, hasn't been on his game, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. The Cowboys are 8-20-1 ATS on fieldturf and have lost two games this season as favorites, losing 42-17 at Denver as -2.5 chalk and last week to the Rams, 35-30, as -5.5 chalk. Dallas is on an 8-3 run UNDER the total, including 14-5 UNDER after a spread loss. They are also 35-20 UNDER after gaining six or more yards per play in back-to-back games. These teams met in January in the playoffs on this field and the Packers won 34-31 as a +5.5 dog as Rodgers was 28-of-32 for 326 yards. Play both Green Bay on the moneyline and the UNDER.