2016 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 15, 2017
Green Bay at Dallas
Sunday 01/15 04:40 PM Eastern
1 unit on Green Bay +5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 52.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: loss
Dallas crushed Green Bay at Lambeau 30-16 back in October. It would be easy to take away from that the better team is by far Dallas. But, over the last seven games, it is Green Bay that statistically is the best team in the NFL. They have beaten more teams in the playoffs than any other team (7-2). The Packers are 0.75 yards per play better than their opponents in the seven games. They accomplished the hat trick during those seven games, scoring 38 points in all three vs. arguably the top three defenses in the NFL in Minnesota, Seattle, and the NY Giants. The win last week was very impressive against a very good Giants defense. The G-Men could not muster a pass rush and AaronRodgers torched them. Rodgers has thrown 22 TDs to zero INTs, and has been the best QB in the league for years, and is playing at an all-time high level right now. The assumption is that Dak Prescott will be Dak Prescott, and most likely he will be. However, this is his first playoff game, so until he gets settled into the game it will be a wait and see approach, with a small chance he implodes. I'm sure Green Bay is going to try and put a lot of heat on him early to test him. The Dallas offense has not been cranking out the points late in the season as they did early. Their last five games have seen them tally 17 or fewer three times. The Packers have been controlling clock in their seven game winning streak, and will do their best to keep Dallas off the field. In this round of the playoffs, teams that allowed fewer than 20 points in their previous game, playing to a line of less than nine points vs. an opponent that scored fewer than 35 points in their previous game are 23-5 ATS, and a perfect 21-0 ATS if the total is under than 43, or the total is greater than 45.5. That 21-0 ATS situation shows the worst loss a team has suffered was by seven points, and just three by more than five points! I think both of these teams have respect for the other's offense, so ball control and field position will be paramount. As a result, I think this game is going to be played below expectations from a total standpoint. This Green Bay team can really take advantage of momentum. Mike McCarthy's Packers are 68-47 ATS following a win including 31-17 ATS after back-to-back-t-back wins. The way they are playing right now, these teams are pretty even, so getting more than a field goal is the way to go. Play Green Bay and the UNDER.