2016 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 22, 2017
Green Bay at Atlanta
Sunday 01/22 03:05 PM Eastern
1 unit on Atlanta -4 (-135) (risk 1 to return 1.74) RESULT: WIN
If you enjoy offense, you are probably going to love this game. The Falcons have averaged just under 34 points per game this season, and the Packers enter having scored 30 points or more in each of their last six games. This one will likely come down to which team can get more stops, and I think that is going to be Atlanta. The Falcons are at home and their offense is better and healthier. The Falcons are a record offense in terms of passing yards per attempt at 8.8, and even with all the recent magic with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, they are at just 6.9 per attempt. If you consider only the eight game winning streak, it is still only 7.8 - a full yard lower than Atlanta. Yes, Rodgers has been amazing, but the reality is that Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been even better. The other issue is the Green Bay defense. They have lost almost every cornerback on their roster to injury, and at times have had to use safeties at cornerback, so this is not a favorable match up at all. In addition, Aaron Rodgers is likely to be without Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams in this game and that could be the difference. The Falcons' back seven have been average, but the Packers have been considerably below average. So what we have is a home team with better offensive numbers going against a road team that has worse defensive numbers on top of it. In the end, I think the Falcons defense is going to get the extra stop they need to get the win and money. Take Atlanta.