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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

August 25, 2007

25

Detroit at Indianapolis

Saturday 08/25 12:00 AM Eastern

3 units on Detroit PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

Rod Marinelli made something clear in game one of the preseason - he isn't playing conservatively. He called for an onside kick that became instrumental in the Lions victory over the Bengals. After the game, back-up QB Dan Orlovsky shared something that Marinelli has been preaching since coming to Detroit. "Coach Marinelli came in here last year and preached winning, whether it was a 1-on-1 route in practice or a preseason game," Orlovsky said. "Losing is going to be wiped out as a culture around here." The Lions, thanks in a big part to major injuries, weren't able to win much last season. But they have been true to those words in 2007 as they have jumped out to a 2-0 record. They put the ball in the air 47 times vs. the Bengals and scored 17 fourth quarter points. They got up 17 on Cleveland and only then put the ball on the ground. This is a coach that wants to win, period. Indianapolis is fresh off a Superbowl win and this preseason is am unfortunate necessity, not a competition. They have nothing to prove and as such have dropped their first two and continue to get their work in. The outcome simply isn't important to this team. Winless teams as a favorite during the preseason, playing a 2-win team, have been horrible ATS. They have covered just 35% of the time in about 100 games. Sure, game three is when we see the starters the most. And in a regular season contest, Indy would be a prohibitive favorite. But this isn't the regular season. Even the Indy starters in this game don't care much about winning. It is clear which team is bringing it and which team is going through the motions. Don't forget that the Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home preseason games and 2-8 ATS in their last ten preseason overall! We will grab the 6 points and play the Lions as a very live dog.


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