Denver at Los Angeles

The Lakers are known primarily for an explosive offense. But we learned well from last year in their series vs the Celtics, that if they don't step up their defense, they are not getting the Championship they so covet. They have been playing great defense beginning with game three of the Utah series. Why is the Utah series significant? The Jazz on the season ranked 7th in points scored per game, while the Nuggets rank 6th. So the two teams have very comparable offenses. In the last three games of that series, the Lakers held the Jazz to 92 ppg. The Lakers offense is also not producing at the rate they did in the regular season, as they averaged just 101.5 ppg in the playoffs vs. 107 per game in the regular season. As the defensive intensity has picked up in the playoffs, LA's offense has "lost" 5 points per game. In addition, their defense has stepped up. They allowed 99 per game in the regular season but they have shaved over 5 ppg from that figure in the playoffs, allowing 93.4. So the Lakers have cut a full 10 points off their regular season game totals. Consequently, a percieved high-flying run and gun team has played 8 of their last 10 playoff games UNDER the total! Last year, the high flying Lakers offense played 13 of 21 playoff games UNDER including three of the four games played against Denver. Here is perhaps the biggest surprise of all. The Nuggets are a notorious offensive team. The last five years have seen them in the top 10 in the NBA in scoring offense every single year. Yet in the playoffs over this same time frame, the Nuggets are 21-8 to the UNDER! They are also 17-5 to the UNDER as a playoff underdog. We have seen this team also step up their committment on the defensive end as the postseason has come. Denver allowed over 100 per game during the regular season but they have cut that total by 5 points per game during the playoffs. The Lakers have posted a 24-9 UNDER mark in their last 33 as a favorite. As much as this one has that offensive allure, this is the playoffs. During the regular season, these teams would easily blast through this total. But the playoffs is a different animal. The committment to defense for both teams is stepped up and I like this one to go UNDER the total.