2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 08, 2007
Dallas at Buffalo
Monday 10/08 08:30 PM Eastern
4 units on Buffalo +11.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
Is Dallas 10 points better than Buffalo? Absolutely. Dallas is a great team this year. Does that mean they will win by more than 10 points on the road tonight? We don't think so. The last time Buffalo hosted a Monday Night Football game was on September 26th, 1994. It has been a bit over 13 years and many of the players will have their first chance to play in the spotlight at home on Monday night. Buffalo has been plagued by injury so far but they have been competitive in every single game played in Buffalo now this season. The same can be said dating back to last season as they kept things close in their last five home games last season. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. This line is inflated due to the Cowboys success early on and the fact that they are a public team, playing on Monday night. Both of the other "great" 2007 teams covered big spreads yesterday (NE and Indy), giving the public more confidence to back the Cowboys here. To put this line into context, last season the Bills were just a 6-point home dog vs. a San Diego team that was rolling through everyone. And they gave up just 5.5 at home to New England and only 9.5 on the road to the Bears. History tells us that laying 10 on the road is a bad wager, as the success rate is very low. We know Dallas can win by double-digits so why should we believe they won't? This is a tough emotional spot for Dallas as they square off vs New England next week. We saw New England play with much less energy yesterday than any game this season. Even with the luxury of being at home, they didn't maintain a focus throughout their game with Cleveland. They ended up winning by 17, but without a last minute INT defensive touchdown, they would not have. We would really be surprised if Dallas brings their "A" game for four quaters to Buffalo tonight. They, like New England, could start out strong. But if they build a lead, their minds will be shifting towards the big game next week. Buffalo should play hard for 60 minutes. We would be equally surprised if Buffalo does not bring their top game here. What better way to get back on track after an 0-3 start than to upset the Cowboys for their second straight win? Trent Edwards was cool and poised last week vs. the Jets and looks like an upgrade to the Buffalo offense. Dallas is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games as a 7.5 to 10 point favorite and 2-12 ATS coming off a win by 28+ points. And, Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron is 12-1 ATS in non-conference home games in his coaching career. We like the Bills to hang tough in this one, and come in the pointspread winner. This game is +10 at some books, 10.5 at others and already at +11 at Bodog. By game time, with the public money rolling in on Dallas (70% on the Boys), it could be 11 everywhere.