2017 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 12, 2017
Dallas at Atlanta
Sunday 11/12 04:25 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Dallas +3.5 (-120) (risk 1.5 to return 2.75) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Game Total OVER 48 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: loss
Dallas has won and covered three straight and is fourthin the NFL in scoring at 28.2 points per game while Atlanta's offense has sputtered under a new offensive coordinator and the Falcons still appear to be suffering from a post-Super Bowl hangover. Atlanta has lost four of its last five games and struggling in short-yardage situations and the Falcons are third in the league with 16 dropped passes, including a crucial one by Julio Jones in last week's loss to Carolina. Also, the Falcons have been hurt by a total of 61 penalties this season and they have scored an average of only 16.6 points their last five games. Matt Ryan finished 24-of-38 for 313 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the Panthers, but the Falcons managed to gain just 53 yards on the ground. Ezekiel Elliott is out for this game, but the Cowboys are surging and Dak Prescott was 21-of-33 for 249 yards with two TDs and no picks in his team's win against Kansas City last week. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS their last five games and 2-6 ATS their last eight November games. Dallas is 11-4 ATS its last 15 games after an ATS win and under Jason Garrett, this team is 28-17 ATS as an underdog. When facing good offensive teams like Dallas (teams averaging 350+ yards per game), the Falcons are 9-1 to the OVER since the start of last season. And, as a favorite over that span, Atlanta is 14-4 to the OVER including a perfect 8-0 to the OVER at home. Under Garrett, Dallas is 24-13 OVER vs. teams like Atlanta that complete 64%+ of their passes. Take the Cowboys and the OVER here.