Cleveland at Tampa Bay

Love fading Tampa Bay on the road but they are home here where they are a winning team and getting over 1.5 to 1. Tampa Bay scores a respectable 4.7 per game at home and they start a lefty which might spell trouble for Cleveland. The Indians score only 4.7 per game vs. southpaws (versus close to 6 per game vs. righties) on way to a dismal 19-27 record. They've also scored just 3.8 per game in domes in the nine games played indoors this season. That's not a lot of data points but does contribute to a feeling that Cleveland may not score a lot this evening. Especially when you throw in the fact that their facing Casey Fossum who has a 4-2 record and 3.29 home ERA. Over his last three starts that's down to 3.07. And, he's 10-2 in second-half play and 10-4 as a home underdog the past two seasons. Now, the D-Rays have to face CC Sabathia who has been excellent this year (3.29 ERA, 2.37 on the road). But, his great pitching hasn't converted to wins as he's just 8-8 on the season. Back him up is a weak bullpen (5.83 road ERA with 3-16 record!) against which Tampa can score. If the D-Rays can keep this a close low scoring game going into the late innings, I like them to get the win against this bullpen. Home teams scoring under 4.5 runs per game starting an average pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 facing a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50+) are 47-22 (68%) over the last 5 seasons. So history backs us up. Live home dog here.