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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 07, 2007

07

Cleveland at New England

Sunday 10/07 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Game Total UNDER 49 -110 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

We all watched New England put up over 30 points for the 4th straight week, while keeping their opponent down. They've won every game by 20 points or more and rank second in offense in the league behind Dallas and first in defense. What choice do the odds-makers have than to put a hefty price on the Pats? We like the Pats in this game, but we would never play on a team giving over two TDs - too many things can happen. The Browns have played good and come in at a surprising 2-2. They should be 3-1 if not for a missed FG at Oakland that would have won the game as time expired. The Browns have had the benefit of playing three games at home, and now turn to the road where they are not the same team. They have had only one scoring success on the road over the last 3+ years covering 25 games, and that was 45 against Cincinnati. Other than that single game, the Browns have averaged 15.6, 14.1 and 13.4 points per game over the last three seasons. This is a rare game in the NFL for based on the line and total. In the NFL, it is extremely rare to see games with a huge favorite and very high total. We often see a handful of double-digit pointspreads throughout the season. It gets into rarified air however to see a 14+ pointspread, and rarer yet to see a 14+ pointspread with a high total. That's what we have here and why there is rare value is in this game. How rare are these games? The past seven seasons has produced only seven games with a 14+ pointspread and a total from 46.5-49.5. Historically when you have seen a total posted in this range it has always been with two very good offenses, and not any above average defenses in the matchup. But in this matchup we have the #1 defense in the league (based on yards and #4 on points). The last six times we have had a pointspread of 14 or higher paired with a total of 46.5 or higher, the game has gone 6-0 UNDER! The last time we saw it topped was on November 11th, 2001. When you have a defense that is ranked #1 in the entire league playing in a game with a total of 48.5, it asks a whole lot from that team's offense. The fact is, if New England gets up in this game early by a huge margin, they will shorten the game and run the ball. They have Dallas awaiting next week, and they'd like nothing more than to come away from this one healthy and untaxed physically. That puts a lot of pressure to put up a lot of points in this game to topple this total, but it is also the reason it seldom happens. The last six games of this type have resulted in 32.3 points per game, falling far below the posted total. The Pats are an incredible 15-2 UNDER in their last 17 vs. very bad defensive teams (allowing 27+ ppg). It worked for us last Monday and it applies again here. Cleveland is 13-4 UNDER the past three seasons following two straight games in which they gained less than 100 yards on the ground. The public sees this one soaring way over this total, as nearly 70% are on the bandwagon carrying money to the window on a high scoring affair. We will follow history to the window, and play the value, which is on the UNDER.


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