2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 23, 2007

23

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Sunday 12/23 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Cincinnati +3 (-120) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: win

5 units on Game Total UNDER 43.5 -105 (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: win

This line is just begging for action on Cleveland. Cincinnati lost last week in a primetime game to the lowly 49ers. They now stand at 5-9, with no chance to reach the respectable .500 mark. Cleveland has been the darlings of the NFL, expected to do nothing, yet they have now won four of their last five and sit at 9-5, pressuring the Steelers for the division title. So how can this line by just three points? We see the bookmakers trying to get you on Cleveland. And they are succeeding with 70% of the bets coming in on the Browns. We see a different story. Cleveland is coming off a highly emotional, intense game vs. Buffalo. Cincinnati was absolutely embarassed on national TV. It is no secret these teams hate each other, so the chance for a Cincinnati no-show is not very likely. In fact, expect the opposite. They'd like nothing more than to bounce the Brownies from a playoff spot. This is not a must-win for Cleveland. They get San Francisco at home next week and it's unlikely that they will need two win out. The Bengals are actually 4-3 at home, 4-2 if you toss out the New England game. In those six games, they are actually out-scoring their opponents. The Browns have been unstoppable at home as they have won six straight there, but the road has not been as kind. Cleveland is just 3-4 on the road, and a much different team. Cincinnati will be playing with revenge, and they are also 4-1 ATS as a short dog of 3 or less, in their last five. We like the Bengals to come away with an inspired effort and win against the Browns. We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.


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