2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 18, 2007

18

Cleveland at Baltimore

Sunday 11/18 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Baltimore +3 (-125) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: PUSH

The Browns certainly are better than most thought they would be. Their offense is very good and they gave the Steelers a scare last week, building a big lead before succumbing to a great team. But hold on, let's not let the hype go too far. The Browns after all are still just 5-4 and their defense is allowing 29.3 points per game. They are ranked dead last in the NFL in yards and points allowed! They will be facing a good defense ranked #5 in yards allowed. Baltimore's problem is, obviously, offense. They are at a low point after losing 21-7 to Cincinnati. That loss dropped them to under .500 and now the public is officially "off" this team. But remember our mantra - buy low sell high! The Ravens haven't had an offense for years but over those years, one thing held true - they were terrible on the road and decent at home. They are 40-26 ATS at home in the Billick era including 14-5 ATS coming off an upset loss! This year is no different. While 1-4 away from home, scoring just 12.6 points per game, they are 3-1 at home, scoring 18.7 per game. And they are allowing just 15 ppg at home. So, we have a team with the worst defense in the leauge, favored on the road against a tremendous defensive team that is 3-1 at home! Note that Baltimore is 13-3 ATS under Billick at home games vs. poor defenses (those allowing over 5.6 yards per play). Yes, Baltimore seems like a team that can't be backed. But, this is the time to back them. They will be very hungry for a critical division win - a win that can take them back to .500 or drop them to an unrecoverable 4-6. Take the Ravens and the points.


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