Cincinnati at St. Louis

It isn't very often that you can catch a team in a pennant race playing at home as a dog, with a competent pitcher on the mound. The Cardinals are in that spot tonight as John Kelly and his 3.01 ERA take the mound for them. In his last seven starts Kelly has allowed 2 runs or less in six of them, and 1 run or less in five of them, so he is certainly capable here. He carries a 5-0 mark with an ERA of 1.79 in the seven-game stretch. Matt Latos is every bit as hot for the Reds, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.47 ERA in his last six decisions. The difference, however, is that Latos has been awful vs. the Cards where he is 4-4 with a 6.28 ERA in 10 career starts against them. St. Louis also brings a 52-25 mark in their last 77 vs. a right-handed starter into this one. Make the play on St. Louis.