Chicago at St. Louis

The Cardinals are getting a bump in the line after getting swept at home in three straight by the Brewers. It must be noted that the Cards ran into a buzz saw, as the Brewers are 20-5 in their last 25 games. Joel Pineiro has pitched to a respectable 4.17 ERA, but a much more respectable 2.45 at home where the Cards have yet to lose with him on the hill. They have lost just once since the All-Star break of last season behind Pineiro at home! Ted Lilly certainly has a bigger name, but the separation between the two over their careers is just 0.17 in the ERA column, so not much difference and we are getting the Cards at home here. The Cubs have proven to be a force at home and mediocre on the road over the last 1+ year. St. Louis has the better record in comparing Cubs on the road vs. St. Louis at home. They also have an even comparison on the mound. The bigger edge belongs to the Cards pen that trumps the 26th rated Cub pen by well over one run a game. We have a favorable matchup all the way around - and we get the dog. I’m going with St. Louis in this one.