Chicago at New York

Randy Johnson just isn't that good anymore. Even the past few years there were great places to fade him and this qualifies. This year, he is downright average (5.13 ERA). His run support has gotten him a 10-7 record but today he faces a better pitcher in Jose Contreras. Contreras is 9-0 this season. The wrong team is favored. Johnson is 17-21 as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the past three seasons and just 30-31 overall in night games. The Sox are 24-9 vs. winning teams this season and 12-3 on the road vs. teams at 54%+ in the second half of the season over the past two seasons. Versus teams that outscore opponents by 1/2 a run or more per game, Contreras is 11-1 over the past two seasons. Underdogs of up to +150 that are batting .300 or better over their last 15 games are 30-15 (67%) in July games over the last 5 seasons. Also, road teams starting a pitcher that throws 6.5+ innings per start, with a team batting average of .285 or better are 54-25 (68%) over the last 5 seasons. White Sox are better team with better starting pitcher.