2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 17, 2007
Chicago at Minnesota
Monday 12/17 08:30 PM Eastern
3 units on Chicago +11 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
The Vikings have suddenly become a feared team. Adrien Peterson is running over everyone, Tarvaris Jackson on the improve, they own the top unit against the run, and have rattled off four straight wins averaging 35 ppg. The alarm should be going off in everyone's head right now....VALUE ALERT! At the beginning of the season, Chicago would have been favored in this game. They certainly don't deserve to sniff the favorite role here but have they they have fallen that far? Peterson ran for 234 yards in the first game and Minnesota still won by just 3 points, so is he going to run for 400 yards in this one, so they win by 13? It still took a 55-yard field goal by Ryan Longwell as time expired to pull it out last time. Let's not forget that before this streak, Minnesota lost to GB 34-0, so they have some weaknesses. Let's look a bit closer at their last four games. They beat the Giants scoring 41 points, but they gained just 251 yards. EEli Manning threw three pick-sixes as the Giants beat themselves. They crushed Detroit, who is suddenly the worst team in the league, getting out-scored 108-205 in an 0-6 run. They beat San Francisco, a team that has scored over 20 points just once this year. They squeaked past Oakland at home, a team that has only won on the road vs Miami who had lost 13 straight, and KC who has now lost seven straight! Those are Oakland's only two wins on the road in their last 19 games! So let's temper Minnesota's great four-game run a bit with a dose of reality - it wasn't THAT impressive. We are not as ready as the public to proclaim this Vikings team a double digit favorite against anyone. Maybe it's the fact that Kyle Orten is getting hs first start at QB for Chicago. How about Luke McCown at New Orleans? Sage Rosenfels of Houston? Quinn Gray of Tampa Bay? Todd Collins of Washington? They all made first starts and won! To be honest, can any new Chicago quarterback be considered anything but an upgrade? Teams off a road loss have come back to cover 59% of their next game, if it is also on the road. Divisional dogs of 7+ have covered 55% of the time, and Lovie Smith is a perfect 3-0 ATS, as well as 4-1 ATS on the road, after a road loss. This young Viking team could be up-tight with something on the line, while the Bears have revenge and a motive here - to spoil Minnesota's playoff run. We expect a much closer result than what most think, so we ride with the overlay and the Bears.