2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 11, 2012
Buffalo at New England
Sunday 11/11 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Buffalo PICK () (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
As long as the New England Patriots still have Tom Brady and a host of great receivers, they are going to be putting up points in bundles. They often score big enough to out-score pedestrian defenses. But this isn't the same dominant Pats team we have come to know over the past decade. What has changed is some of the attitude. This team used to pile on in games, taking no prisoners. The Pats used to own a 15-7 ATS mark when favored by ten or more, but that has all changed. In the last 24 games in which they have taken on this role they are 6-18 ATS. Maybe it's attitude. Maybe it's a weaker defense. Whatever it is, this team is not good at covering large numbers. They are off a big blowout win and have already beaten Buffalo by 28 points this year on the road, so it looks easy right? It probably won't be. CJ Spiller and Fred Jakson were coming off injuries in their early season meeting vs. the Pats. I think the Bills are gonna do a lot of running and go well beyond the 84 yards they got the first time around. The Bills don't look like they stand a chance here, but that is usually when a team is ripe to cover a huge number. The public is on New England at over 80% and I think they get burned here. Double-digit dogs that are revenging a 21+ point loss are 87-57-3 ATS since 1980. And you won't believe this: Bill Belichick is just 6-13 ATS in New England with two-weeks to prepare. Take Buffalo with the points.