2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 16, 2007
Baltimore at Miami
Sunday 12/16 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Miami +4 (-115) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
If the season started seven weeks ago, many may be talking about Baltimore the same way they talk about Miami. The question would be, "will this team win a game all season?" Yes, the Ravens have dropped their last seven in a row. The defense has gotten tired and looks old, and the offense still doesn't move the ball. Despite their big loss last week, Miami has been close to breaking through, as they have lost six games by 3 points or less. The schedule has featured just five teams with sub-.500 records, and this will be their best chance all season at a win. They are home, getting a team that has vastly underperformed and is coming off two big high profile opponents to face a winless team. The Ravens are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 on the road, and 0-7 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite. Baltimore has the 28th ranked offense, and on the road this offense is horrenous and has been so for years. This year they are scoring 12.8 away from home. Miami has a similar offense overall, but they are home where they are averaging 16.3 points per game. The Ravens defense, while considered good, ranked 6th in yards allowed, is near the very bottom of the league in points allowed (ranked #26, allowing 24.5 ppg). Miami has given up a ton of points to the league's elite offenses (Dallas, Cleveland, New England), but against everyone else they are allowing 24 ppg. They should be able to keep Baltimore for going nuts here as this will be the worst offense they have faced all season - by a long shot. Don't underestimate the power of fear. After losing last week, and with New England and Cincinnati on deck, the fear of being the first team to go 0-16 is front-and-center for the Dolphins. Whether they admit it or not, this is their best remaining shot of avoiding that disaster. Meanwhile, a very dissapointed Baltimore team (off a 13-3 year, now at 4-9 and in the AFC North cellar) has relatively little motivation to get up for a winless team. We like Miami to pull this one out.