2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 21, 2007

21

Baltimore at Buffalo

Sunday 10/21 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Game Total UNDER 34.5 -110 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

This game could become a real yawner. Last week Baltimore converted six turnovers into 22 points (five FGs and a TD). They could not sustain a drive against a bad St. Louis defense at home. They managed just 248 yards, even with six extra possessions. The offensive line is in shambles, and they simply don't have a QB that can move the offense. That puts the load on McGahee, and guess what? The Bills, his former team, are going to be stoked to stop him cold! The Ravens have now scored just two touchdowns in their last three games. Buffalo is another team that struggles to move the ball and score points. Even in their big Monday Night performance two weeks ago, they managed just 3 points from their offense against Dallas. The defense and special teams did the rest. The Bills have now prodcued as many TDs through five games from defense and special teams, as they have from their offense (four). Baltimore owns a good defense - one of the best in the league (#4 in yards allowed) while Buffalo has the 31st ranked offense. Will Buffalo score here? These teams are both coming off games where they forced 3+ turnovers, and had a +3 turnover margin. Those teams have played UNDER in 54 of 78 games, or 69% of the time. We have two teams fitting this system that both qualifying in the same game! Buffalo has played under in 23 of 32 vs. teams that allow 3.5 yards per carry or less (72% of the time). These teams met last year and put up a total of 26 points, and we expect a similar game in this one.


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