2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 26, 2015
Baltimore at Arizona
Monday 10/26 08:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Arizona -400 (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 2.5) RESULT: WIN
It's been the season of the witch for poor Baltimore who sits at 1-5 on the season. The defense lost its top player (DE Terrell Suggs) to injury and the secondary has been awful at 29th against the pass allowing 286.2 yards per game, plus 26th in points allowed (27 points per game). The schedule-maker hasn't been kind either, already playing games out west at Oakland, Denver, San Francisco and now Arizona. This is also the Ravens' fifth road game in seven contests, and their fourth cross-country trip of the young season. They are off a 25-20 defeat at the 49ers last week as chalk. In fact, Baltimore has been favored in every game but one but they own just one win in six games. They just allowed 340 passing yards to a 49ers club that ranked among the league's worst passing attacks. Baltimore now faces Carson Palmer (14 TDs, 5 INTs), WR Larry Fitzgerald, and John Brown. Arizona is averaging 33.8 points per game, second only to the New England Patriots. Arizona is 8-1 straight-up the past three seasons vs. bad defensive teams like Baltimore (teams giving up 24+ points per game). As good as Jon Harbaugh has been, his team is just 10-18 straight-up on the road in the first half of the season. In contrast, Bruce Arians is 11-2 at home in the first-half of the season, 8-1 straight-up in home games after a loss and 12-4 vs. losing teams. This is a brutal spot for the visitors and the line reflects that. It's moved from 6.5 to 9 in most spots. I can't back Arizona at that line, but I can't take lowly Baltimore either. I do believe there's value on the Cards to win this game however. I peg them as having a 90%+ shot here. I know some folks don't like laying big moneylines. If that is you, just pass on this. But, keep in mind that a win here gets us a 25% return on investment - in one day! That's nothing to sneeze at (most people would die for something that returned 25% in a year). Take the home team to win outright.