Atlanta at Charlotte

The Hawks can't play defense and they are especially horrible vs. division opponents who know how to exploit there weakenesses well. They allow 106.4 vs. division foes and they are 12-3 OVER vs. division opponents this season. Charlotte also can't play defense, allowing over 100 per game this year. Games with a total of 200 to 209.5 featuring a team of a scoring effort of 110+ points facing an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more have gone over 75% of the time (55-18) over the last 5 seasons. Atlanta is 16-4 OVER versus good ball handling teams since the all-star break and 16-4 OVER off a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. All three matchups between these teams have gone OVER the total and I expect the same for the fourth. One star on the OVER.