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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 07, 2007

07

Arizona at St. Louis

Sunday 10/07 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on St. Louis +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The Rams are a very banged up team and come into this contest with more question marks than answers. They are a hideous 0-4 SU and ATS. If St. Louis is a dissapointment, Arizona has been just the opposite. The Cardinals have been an underdog four straight weeks, covering every game. No win was as big as last week's upset over the Steelers. This week their role cahnges as they become the hunted, instead of the hunter. Historically home dogs have barked loudly in the NFL, and this year certainly has been no different. Home pups are now 14-7 ATS through four weeks. Arizona certainly has been a live dog over the years, but unfamiliar and unkind to backers as a road favorite. They are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in that role since 1995. They are currently using a formula that usually backfires in the NFL - two quarterbacks. Sooner or later that will bite them, and it may be this game. Stephen Jackson and Marc Bulger will both sit this one out, as Gus Frerotte will lead the offense. While most would consider Frerrotte a downgrade, sometimes a struggling team needs a change. This may be the infusion this offense needs (see Buffalo and Edwards last week). Frerotte has a lot of experience and the last two times he has gotten significant playing time he delivered 25 TDs and 15 INTs. With Bulger sitting on a 64.9 QB rating, it can't get much worse. Jackson was not having a good year, so turning the load over to Bryan Leonard may not be as bad as one would think. Leonard has rushed for 4 yards per carry as compared to Jackson's 3.4. The fact that the two offensive super stars are out for St. Louis gives us line value without a big dropoff in performance (from how they have played this year). St. Louis so far has played teams that were 6-1 combined at the time they played them, and 11-5 overall, so they haven't had an easy go yet. They were actually up on Carolina midway through the 3rd quarter, with more yardage for the game. They also led San Francisco 13-7 with just three minutes left. They completely dominated as they produced 20 first downs to the Niners 8, and doubled them up in yardage. So this is a much more competitive team than it would appear at first glance, especially at home. Arizona appears to be an up and coming team, but the hardest corner to turn is winning on the road. This team is 5-34 SU on the road in their last 39 games, and to put them as better than a FG better than anyone on the road at this point, has no value to us. We will ride the Rams with the points.


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