Indiana runs for 192 yards a game and has gone for 233 or more four times: 296, 233, 271, and 329. The Hoosiers have outscored their eight opponents 33.6 to 12.0 per game, and the offense produced 20, 15 and 13 in the last three games, against Nebraska, Ohio State and Michigan, while the defense gave up 17, 19 and 6. Minnesota has scored 13 points in three of its seven games, losing 38-13 to Mississippi State, which ran for 252 yards, and 41-13 at Purdue, which ran for 305, and beating Iowa 13-10. Only Northwestern, with 23, has scored more than 19 against Indiana, and Minnesota has reached 20 in only four of its seven games, so Indiana wins.
UCLA has taken the ball away 22 times against 11 giveaways, including seven takeaways in a 17-15 win at Oregon, and the Bruins are 7-0. They run for 233 yards a game, with 214 or more in five of seven, and allow 90. Nevada is 3-4 with 12 giveaways, and it lost both games in which it gave the ball away three or more times, 27-20 to Middle Tennessee and 20-7 to Montana State. Its run defense gave up 363 yards to Air Force in a 36-33 loss and 192 to North Dakota State in a 31-17 loss. Nevada has taken the ball away in only two of seven games, and UCLA has given it away more than twice once, so the short fields Nevada needs are not there, and UCLA takes it.
Texas has allowed 19.1 points per game and scored at least 24 in six of seven. Its two losses, 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 to Florida, were by three points each. Mississippi State scored 62, 38, 41 and 31 in its first four games, all wins, and 23, 0 and 15 in its last three, losing to Alabama, LSU and Oklahoma by 33, 31 and 8. Its defense has allowed 24 or more in four of seven games and 27.7 per game. Mississippi State has not scored more than 23 since the Missouri game and would need 28 against a Texas defense that has never allowed more than 27, which is a Texas win.
Northern Illinois has lost seven games by an average of 23.4 points. UNLV is 4-3, and two of its opponents also played the Huskies. UNLV won 21-6 at Hawaii, and Northern Illinois lost 56-21 to Hawaii at home in its last game, giving the ball away five times. Air Force beat UNLV 41-31 and beat Northern Illinois 28-7. The Huskies have scored 14 or fewer in three of seven games, and UNLV’s defense has allowed 10 or fewer three times. Measured against Hawaii, UNLV is 50 points better, which puts this game in UNLV’s column.
Back Indiana (-1233 moneyline), UCLA (-1567 moneyline), Texas (-1011 moneyline), and UNLV (-1438 moneyline) in one four-team parlay at -284.
