Ohio opened with an 86-77 win at South Alabama and outrebounded the Jaguars 36-27 on the road. The Bobcats went 15-17 last season and have 39% of those minutes and 48% of those points back. North Carolina A&T went 11-19 and has 13% of its minutes and 13% of its points back, so it plays its first road game of the season with a rotation that is mostly new. Ohio is at home with the steadier roster, so Ohio wins.
North Texas has scored 35 or more in seven straight games and averages 43.8 points, second-most in the FBS. Rice has lost seven in a row and has allowed 28 or more in six of its eight games. Against Houston Christian, Tulsa, and Florida Atlantic, the three opponents both teams have played, North Texas is 3-0 with a combined margin of +57, and Rice is 1-2 at +5. North Texas allows 31.9 points a game, 17th-most in the FBS. Florida Atlantic beat Rice 51-49 in Rice’s last game, with Gael Ochoa starting at quarterback and running for 259 yards, and Rice has been held to 21 or fewer in five of its other seven. Rice allows 31.8 points a game, 18th-most in the FBS, one place from North Texas, so the defenses are a wash and the offenses decide this game, which goes to North Texas.
Wisconsin allows 17.1 points a game, tied for 19th-fewest in the FBS. Rutgers allows 32.6, 12th-most. The one opponent both teams have played is USC: Wisconsin beat USC 24-7, and USC beat Rutgers 42-35. Iowa beat Wisconsin 30-0 last time out, and Wisconsin changed quarterbacks during that game. I count three games where Wisconsin was held under 24 points, and all three came on the road, while this one is at home. Wisconsin’s defense has held six of eight opponents to 20 or fewer, and Rutgers has allowed 28 or more in seven, so this game goes to Wisconsin.
Dayton beat NJIT 89-58 in its opener, held the Highlanders to 34% shooting and outrebounded them 50-28. Dayton went 23-11 last season and has 24% of those minutes back. Grambling beat Northern Illinois 89-87, and Tulsa beat it 94-75, and Tulsa won the rebounding 42-26. Grambling shot 64% against Northern Illinois, which went 9-21 last season, has none of those minutes back, and is under a first-year head coach. A defense that held its opener opponent to 34% shooting faces one that Grambling shot 64% against, which makes Dayton the winner.
Take Ohio (-900 moneyline), North Texas (-641 moneyline), Wisconsin (-900 moneyline), plus Dayton (-3233 moneyline) in a four-team parlay at -212.
