North Dakota State has allowed 49 points through four games, 12.25 a game, and is tied for 11th in the FBS. Air Force scored 32 of them in a 38-32 Bison win three weeks ago, and the other three opponents combined for 17. Wyoming is 132nd of 138 FBS teams at 17.75 points a game, and its best output against an FBS opponent is the 27 it put on Hawai'i last week. The Cowboys have also given the ball away eight times against five takeaways. A team that scores that rarely cannot afford to hand away possessions against a defense that has held three of four opponents to 10 or fewer. James Madison scores 44.75 points a game, tied for seventh in FBS with UCLA, and that average includes an 87-3 win over Wagner. The sturdier evidence is the defense: 49 points allowed through four games, the same 12.25 a game as North Dakota State, with road wins of 26-13 at San Diego State and 46-20 at Old Dominion. Marshall allows 32.50 a game, 124th of 138, and has given the ball away six times against three takeaways. The Thundering Herd have won three straight by a combined nine points, and each of those opponents scored at least 24. A defense that has allowed at least 24 in every game needs the other offense to stall, and James Madison has not scored fewer than 20 in any game. I had the OVER in Indiana's opener four weeks ago, and it cashed in a 52-16 win over North Texas. The Hoosiers have allowed 39 points through four games, 9.75 a game and fifth in FBS, with shutouts of Howard and Western Kentucky. Rutgers ranks 108th at 28.50 allowed per game and gave up at least 28 in all three of its losses. It scored 35 against USC and still lost by seven. Indiana averages 43.50 points per game, 11th in FBS, and no opponent has scored more than 23 on it. The 29-23 win over Northwestern last Friday was the closest of the Hoosiers' four wins, and the other three were decided by at least 36 points. Putting up -900 on the Bison, -1011 on the Dukes, or -1900 on the Hoosiers alone means a heavy price for a small return. Together, they make a three-team parlay at -351, and the ticket needs all three favorites to win outright without asking any of them to cover. I'm on the three-team parlay today.
This Pro Pick was released to clients on October 03, 2026 at 10:14AM ET.
North Dakota State (CFB-200) MONEYLINE + James Madison (CFB-148) MONEYLINE + Indiana (CFB-207) MONEYLINE
October 3, 2026
1.5 units on 3 Team Parlay: (-319) (risk 1.5 to return 1.97)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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