Liberty allows 13.5 points per game, the seventh-fewest in the FBS, and outscores opponents by 20.3 points per game, the 10th-best. Liberty beat Sam Houston 35-3 and Florida International 49-10, and New Mexico State beat Sam Houston 30-24 and lost to Florida International 22-3, so against those two common opponents, Liberty outscored them by a combined 71 points, and New Mexico State was outscored by 13. Liberty has won its last six by 16 or more points and allowed 17 or fewer in each. New Mexico State scores 21.5 points a game, 27th-fewest, and was shut out in its last game. A defense that has held six straight opponents to 17 or fewer meets an offense that was shut out last time out, so Liberty finishes ahead.
Texas Tech outscores opponents by 14.5 points a game, 22nd-best in the FBS. West Virginia allows 32.3, 13th-most. Texas Tech beat Arizona 34-26, and Cincinnati beat Texas Tech 37-24, while Arizona beat West Virginia 52-31 and West Virginia beat Cincinnati 45-42. Across those two common opponents, Texas Tech’s combined margin is minus 5, and West Virginia’s is minus 18, and Texas Tech’s quarterback changed between the two games: Will Hammond played the Cincinnati loss, and Thomas Castellanos the Arizona win. West Virginia scores 35.9 points a game to Texas Tech’s 35.6, and Texas Tech allows 21.1, about 11 fewer than West Virginia, so the offenses score alike; the common-opponent results favor Texas Tech by 13 points, and Texas Tech comes out the winner.
Santa Clara opened with an 89-70 win over Towson and followed it with a 95-72 win over Milwaukee, which is a 21-point average margin. Towson shot 37% and Milwaukee 38% against the Broncos, who shot 45% and 49%. Santa Clara went 26-9 last season and has 55% of those minutes and 49% of those points back. Sacramento State went 10-21 and has 33% of its minutes and 31% of its points back, and it allowed 82 points a game last season. A team winning by 21 a game meets a roster that allowed 82 a game last year and has a third of its minutes back, so Santa Clara carries the game.
Play Liberty (-669 moneyline) plus Texas Tech (-567 moneyline) plus Santa Clara (-2400 moneyline) as a three-team parlay at -249.
