Troy has scored 17, 10, and 6 points in its three road games, all losses, and last Saturday it lost 21-14 at home to UL Monroe, which came in 0-6. I had UL Monroe with the points in that game, and it cashed. James Madison outscores FBS opponents by 14.4 points per game, 17th among the 138 FBS teams. Troy is being outscored by 5.2 a game against that group, 96th. James Madison’s only loss was 34-31 at App State on October 22, and it has allowed 22 or fewer points in each of its four home games. My mathematical model projects a 35-15 win for James Madison. James Madison has scored 26 or more in each of its last seven games, and Troy’s best road game fell nine points short of that, so James Madison wins this.

Florida Atlantic beat Rice 51-49 last Saturday against a Rice offense that had averaged 17 points through its first seven games. Florida Atlantic’s defense allows 38 points per game to FBS opponents, the eighth-most of the 138 teams, and it gave up 66 at Florida and 56 at Army in its two losses. North Texas scores 39.8 per game against FBS opponents, fourth in the country. Both teams are 5-2. Florida Atlantic scores 32.5 per game against FBS opponents, and North Texas allows 33.3. The scoring margin in those games is 6.5 per game for North Texas and minus 5.5 for Florida Atlantic, a 12-point gap, and my mathematical model projects a 47-31 win for North Texas. Florida Atlantic has reached 45 points only twice in six games against FBS opponents, and North Texas has scored at least 45 in each of its last four games, so North Texas should win.

Take James Madison (-953 moneyline) plus North Texas (-471 moneyline) in a two-team parlay at -295.