Houston is 2-4 and the Giants are 3-2-1. Through six games Houston has scored 24 a game and allowed 23.8, and New York has scored 22.7 and allowed 23.3, so the two defenses look alike. The last three games separate them. In its last three games Houston scored 30, 26 and 34 and allowed 34, 3 and 31, which is 22.7 a game. New York scored 36, 27 and 27 and allowed 24, 27 and 34, which is 28.3 a game, with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and safety Jevon Holland playing all three. Both are out, and so is cornerback Greg Newsome II. Both offenses scored 30 a game in that stretch, so the gap between the teams is a Houston defense that gave up 5.7 fewer points a game. J.J. McCarthy starts at quarterback in place of Jameis Winston, who started the four games after Jaxson Dart’s injury and went 2-1-1. McCarthy threw for 243 yards in the fourth quarter of a 34-27 loss to New Orleans, which began with New York down 27-10. Houston is without safeties Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship, and the 31 it allowed last week came with Pitre already out. My mathematical model projections have Houston winning 25-16 and give the Texans a 76.6% chance. New York gave up more points over those three games and now loses three defenders who played all of them, so Houston should win this afternoon.   Oklahoma City beat the Clippers 126-107 on November 4, 122-101 on December 18 and 128-110 on April 8. James Harden and Kawhi Leonard, who between them led the Clippers in scoring in those games, are no longer on the roster. Oklahoma City has traded Luguentz Dort, who started all three. Oklahoma City went 64-18 last season and outscored opponents by 11.1 points a game, first in the league and 2.8 ahead of San Antonio, a margin worth roughly 65 wins by the Pythagorean formula, which turns points scored and allowed into an expected record. The Clippers finished 42-40 at plus 1.1, worth about 44 wins by the same formula. Bradley Beal and Brandon Ingram are out, and the Clippers scored 121 against Sacramento and 117 at the Lakers without them. Oklahoma City held San Antonio and Denver to 104 and 84, an average of 94, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams all playing in both games. My mathematical model projections have Oklahoma City winning 118-105 and give it an 89.6% chance. A defense that gave up 94 a game across those two should hold the Clippers, who averaged 119 in their last two, to far fewer, so Oklahoma City should win tonight.   Laid alone, Houston at -426 and Oklahoma City at -900 cost too much. Combine them into a two-team parlay and the price is -269. That is one ticket, and I’m on that parlay.