Indianapolis has 12 giveaways and three takeaways in seven games, a turnover differential of minus nine that is the worst in the league, while Jacksonville has given the ball away four times in six games. The Colts’ passer rating is 69.4, 31st, and they have taken 19 sacks. Tight end Tyler Warren, who missed the last two games with a groin injury, is good to go, and the Colts’ rating was 73.6 in the five games he played. Safety Antonio Johnson is out with an ankle injury for a Jaguars pass defense that allows 273.8 net yards per game, third-most in the league, and Indianapolis nets 180.4, 25th. Jonathan Taylor ran for 95 yards at Minnesota on October 25. Jacksonville allows 72.2 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the league. Houston scored 34 on the Jaguars in London on October 18, the only game this season Jacksonville has allowed more than 20 points. Jacksonville is 2-0 at home, beating Cleveland 34-10 and New England 35-6, and allows 17.3 points per game, third-fewest in the league. Indianapolis has scored 30 twice in seven games and never more, so Jacksonville wins.
Miami has scored 13 or fewer points in four of its six games and averages 16.3, 30th in the league. Its passing game nets 162 yards per game, 30th, and its defense has six sacks in six games, the fewest in the league. Miami’s one win came on October 25, 28-25 at the Jets. The Dolphins have averaged 20.7 points in the three games since running back De’Von Achane was lost for the season with a torn ACL. New England is 1-3 on the road and lost 30-24 at Chicago on October 22. The Patriots have 14 giveaways in seven games, second-most per game, and Miami has taken the ball away five times in six games, fourth-fewest per game. A.J. Brown is out with ankle and knee injuries. New England scored 20, 6, 29 and 45 in the four games he missed on injured reserve. Wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins, who each played in at least three of those games, are on injured reserve with shoulder and calf injuries. Drake Maye threw for 321 yards at Chicago without them and was sacked twice there with left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. New England gains 6.0 yards per play, fourth in the league, and Miami allows 5.7, eighth-worst. Miami has neither the pass rush nor the takeaways to punish New England’s turnovers, so this game goes to New England.
Combine Jacksonville (-419 moneyline) and New England (-321 moneyline) into a two-team parlay at -160.
