Pittsburgh Penguins vs Vegas Golden Knights Betting Picks

Pittsburgh lost 5-2 at Colorado on Friday night and is on the ice in Las Vegas again tonight. It has won one of its last six games, a shootout against Dallas on October 10, and it has scored 13 goals in those six, 2.2 a game, with three or fewer in every one. Vegas last played Thursday, a 6-2 win over Calgary, and it has won seven of its nine games, four of five at home counting overtime and shootout results. That is a 77.8% win rate, well above the 67.0% the moneyline price needs, and its two losses were 4-3 to Anaheim and 4-2 at Minnesota. Vegas has outscored its opponents 35-22 and outshot them in seven of nine games, and it puts 31.0 shots a game on net against the 28.8 Pittsburgh allows. Half of Pittsburgh’s 26 goals came in its first two games, and in its last four road games it has scored 3, 2, 3 and 2. Pittsburgh has given up 3.25 goals a game, 13th-most in the league. Vegas allows 2.4 goals a game, sixth-fewest in the league, and it has held opponents to two or fewer in six of nine games and to 28 or fewer shots in eight of nine. Vegas allows 25.6 shots a game, ninth-fewest in the league, and Pittsburgh has averaged 27.0 shots for across its last six games. Pittsburgh’s power play has converted 4 of 27 chances, 26th in the league, and Vegas on the moneyline is my NHL Game of the Week, with the UNDER alongside it tonight.

Expect a strong effort from Las Vegas. Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy ripped his team after they were flat in a 3-2 road loss to the Capitals two days ago. That was the first game Las Vegas had its players back from the Winter Olympics. Now the Golden Knights are at full strength, while the Penguins are minus injured star Sidney Crosby. Excluding a 6-4 win against the Kings in their first game back from the Winter Olympics when they were missing all five of their Olympic participants, the Golden Knights have given up an average of only two goals per game during their last three games. Pittsburgh has yielded only five goals in regulation during its last three games. Don't look for the Penguins to push pace after they played yesterday and lost, 3-2, to the Rangers in a shootout. This is an early start, too. A plus for the UNDER. Take the Golden Knights and the UNDER.

The past three meetings have gone UNDER, including Vegas' 4-0 win over the Penguins on Friday. The Golden Knights had allowed only two goals in three games before Los Angeles busted out with six goals in a 6-5 win over Vegas on Sunday. The Golden Knights are 5-0 UNDER after scoring at least five goals their previous game and Pittsburgh is 6-0-1 UNDER following a win. The Penguins come off a 3-1 victory over Minnesota for their fourth UNDER in five games. Pittburgh is 7-0-1 UNDER its past eight games against Western Conference teams and the Knights are 8-0-1 UNDER their past nine versus the Metropolitan Division. The UNDER is 6-0-1 when the Penguins allowed two or fewer goals their previous game. Take the UNDER.

Pittsburgh is working on two days of rest. The offense is ninth on the power play. They're 2-1 in their last three as an underdog of +170 or higher, winning at the NY Rangers (3-2) as a +178 dog and against Edmonton (5-3) as a +190 underdog. Vegas is working on one day of rest. The defense is 16th in save percentage (.900) and 19th in penalty killing. Vegas is on a 9-12 run, losing 10 times as a favorite, including as chalk of -170, -155, -250, -190, -300, -155, and -140. Play Pittsburgh.