Washington at Carolina

Carolina won 4-1 at Philadelphia on Sunday, its fifth straight win. The Hurricanes have outscored opponents 25-11 over that run and have scored 27 goals through six games. Washington beat them 5-2 on October 2, but that was Carolina’s season opener, and the Hurricanes haven’t lost since. The shot numbers are why I trust the run. Carolina allows 21.4 shots a game, the fewest in the league, and generates 31.9. Washington allows 28.4, 22nd in the league, and lost 5-3 at home to Seattle on Sunday. Washington is also without defensemen Matt Roy and Rasmus Sandin, both on injured reserve. A puckline ticket at this price needs Carolina to win by two or more only about 38% of the time to show a profit, and four of the Hurricanes’ five wins have come by at least two goals. I make the offense the difference, since Washington gives up the volume of chances that turns a one-goal win into a two-goal one. I’m backing Carolina to cover the puckline.